week eight-Brexit

Brexit was the right thing for Britain — and the rest of Europe

By Daniel Hannan

Updated 0934 GMT (1734 HKT) December 26, 2016

Six months ago, Britain voted to leave the EU.How is it working out? 

Well, the United Kingdom ends 2016 as the fastest-growing G7 economy, according to the IMF. British stocks are the best-performing in Europe. Unemployment keeps falling. Major firms -- GSK, AstraZeneca, Lidl, McDonald's, Google, Wells Fargo -- have announced huge investments.

"Ah," say the pessimists, "but Britain hasn't left the EU yet. Just wait until Brexit takes effect."

Sorry, chaps, but that's not what you said at the time. The line taken by the Treasury, the Bank of England, the IMF and virtually every international agency was that the act of voting to leave the EU would cause an immediate economic shock.

George Osborne, then the British chancellor and prominent Remain campaigner, said that there would need to be an emergency budget within days to raise taxes and cut spending by £19 billion -- a plan that was dropped right after the vote.

Mark Carney, the governor of the Bank of England, predicted "a technical recession" -- that is, a contraction in two successive quarters. In fact, the economy expanded by 0.5% in the three months to September and seems to have expanded again during the quarter now ending.

The IMF, having predicted disaster, has been ticked off by its own watchdog for being so obsessed with European integration that it failed to be neutral.

Things may change, of course. Indeed, if we give it long enough, there is bound to be a cyclical downturn. But we should assess the gloomy long-term forecasts in the light of the same people's short-term forecasts. The central prediction of UK economists was that unemployment would rise by 9,000 a month in the three months after the vote; it, in fact, fell by almost exactly that amount.

Some 71% of economists surveyed by Bloomberg right after 23 June predicted a recession in 2016. How's that working out?

Is it not at least possible that some forecasters, especially those in mega banks and international bureaucracies, allowed their emotional investment in the European project to color their predictions? All human beings do this: psychologists call it self-serving bias. It would be odd if Treasury officials or OECD functionaries were uniquely immune.

Countries outside the EU keep indicating that they want free trade deals with the UK. Outside a relatively protectionist customs union, Britain can open its markets, including in traditionally protected sectors such as food and textiles, benefiting its own consumers while revitalizing the world trading system.

網址:http://edition.cnn.com/2016/12/23/opinions/brexit-was-best-thing-for-britain-hannan/

 Structure of the Lead：

who:British
what:leave the EU
when:December 26, 2016.Six months ago
why:Britain can open its markets, including in traditionally protected sectors such as food and textiles, benefiting its own consumers while revitalizing the world trading system.
where:UK
how:not

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